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(943) Atlanta Braves at (944) San Diego Padres   (Game Analysis Below)

Play Rating: 3%

Play Type: Full Game Run Line

Play: San Diego Padres -1.5 (+122) Action

Date/Time: Oct 1, 2024 8:38 PM 

Line Provider: Consensus Line

3% Atlanta @ San Diego

Strong situational spot combined with advantageous starting pitching and bullpen matchups point directly to San Diego. Atlanta off hard fought doubleheader yesterday just to qualify for this wild card series leaves them vulnerable in this spot. Braves unable to set their rotation due to necessity for a win yesterday leaves them in a piece meal type situation. Loss of probably NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale (back spasms) thoroughly shortens up rotation leading to naming of RH A.J. Smith-Shawver as tonight’s starter. The 21 year old made just 1 appearance all season back on May 23 when he threw 4 1/3 innings in a start vs. the Chicago Cubs. Atlanta also limited in the bullpen after using closer Raisel Iglesias in each end of yesterday’s DH and using RH Daysbel Hernandez on back-back days (50 pitches). San Diego meanwhile starts red-hot RH Michael King (2.11 ERA L7 starts) who has allowed a .299 OBP here in Petco Park striking out 109 in just 78 2/3 innings. Padres bullpen which has been among league’s best is rested and full available. Braves 18 innings of max effort play plus post game celebration & cross country flight is compounded with early 5:38 pm PST start. The entirety of the situation could leave them less energized than homestanding San Diego & their presumed raucous crowd. Eight Padres home wins in September saw them win by 2+ six times so they’re more than capable of covering the run line here. Figure that streak to go to 7-2 tonight.

Play: San Diego -1.5 +122