4% San Diego (8:38 ET): Think this series is “all over but the shouting.” As you know, over the last several months, I’ve been rather vocal about the Padres’ chances of winning the World Series this year. They took advantage of a fatigued Braves team in Game 1 of this Wild Card series, winning 4-0 behind a remarkable pitching effort from Michael King, who struck out 12 (no walks) over seven shutout innings. San Diego obviously won’t have King on the mound for Game 2 Wednesday, but they’ll have Joe Musgrove, who has been dominant in his own right. We’re talking about a guy who has a 2.15 ERA in nine starts since returning from the IL. He’s allowed 2 ER or fewer in 7 of those 9 starts while averaging 10.2 K’s per nine innings. 

Atlanta will turn to Max Fried, who is a lefty, putting the Padres in their weaker split. Fried was one out away from a CG shutout in his final regular season start (vs. KC) and posted a 2.14 ERA his L5 starts overall. But I certainly don’t think that justifies the pretty massive price swing we’ve seen relative to Game 1. The Braves still have a major issue in that their bullpen is fatigued from the doubleheader Monday. Prior to that last start, Fried had made it past the sixth inning in just three starts since June 4th. He only lasted 4 ⅓ innings vs. San Diego back in May. 

And the Padres clearly have the stronger overall lineup in this series. I actually view the fact they were able to win with just five hits in Game 1 as a positive. I expect more from the lineup in Game 2 and, again, Musgrove was great down the stretch with five different starts where he didn’t allow a single run. The Padres have a better bullpen than the Braves as well. Since the Wild Card format was expanded two years ago, not only have all eight Game 1 winners gone on to advance, but seven of them swept. 4% San Diego (Play to -140)