Leipzig vs Juventus
Champions League, Wednesday, 3pm ET

Play: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -120
Line Parameter: Playable to -130

RB Leipzig might have blown off some steam in the 4-0 home win against Augsburg over the weekend, but they have generally struggled to even win against teams that play tight defensively. They had a 0-0 draw at St Pauli last week, and another 0-0 draw against Union Berlin before that, as well as a 1-0 win against Bochum. They are 3-3 to the Under 2.5 goals in league and Champions League, with the overs coming against Leverkusen (can't defend), Augsburg (can't defend), and the 2-1 loss to Atletico Madrid in MD1 of the Champions League, where Atletico scored the winning goal at the 90th minute. Clearly struggling to break down well structured defenses, and Juventus are exactly that. 

Juventus have yet to concede a single goal after 6 matches in league play (W3 D3 L0), with a 3-4 record to the Under 2.5 Goals. But those 4 overs came with 3-0 wins against Como, Verona and Genoa in the Serie A, all three teams sitting in the bottom half of the league table and none of them is perceived as a "good team", and their other Over was against PSV in MD1 of the Champions League where, let's face it, Juve caught PSV sleeping, and they were playing at home. 

Leipzig know that there is no room for error here, having lost their first Champions League match and facing Liverpool in MD3, so they absolutely need the win, or at least a draw. They have proven that they can't break down tight defenses like Juventus, and Juventus know that they don't need to open up either, as Leipzig have a lot of quality up front. 

This looks like a slow game to me, quite possibly a Draw (or even a 1-1 Correct Score at +500), so we ride with the Under 2.5 Goals here. 

Take 2% on the Under 2.5 Goals (-120), playable to -130