917 Kansas City at Baltimore

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Mentioned on Wagertalk Today yesterday why we felt road underdogs were the way to go in betting this round of the playoffs. And those that followed went 3-1 on opening day. While we only had free plays yesterday, we are stepping out today with a qualifying selection. 

Neither one of these teams were playing exceptionally well down the stretch, so we can’t see a reason why the host is such a favorite here. After all Seth Lugo has been terrific all year. What we really like is how well he was able to pitch on the road. A 9-3 record with a 2.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He is in the 86th percentile in BB rate, and 62nd in ground ball rate. That’s why he has only permitted 16 long balls on the season. He faced the O’s just once this season way back in April, and Baltimore hit him well, scoring 4 earned runs in 5.1 innings. We expect regression to work in his favor today. 

Zach Eflin had another solid season with a 10-9 record, a 3.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He was an important trade piece for the O’s after he came over from the Rays. He faced the Royals once and was lit up for 5 earned runs in 5 innings. So we expect both starters to have success on Wednesday.

While Kansas City wasn’t expected to make the postseason this year, the Orioles were the team getting all the press. Not only did they have a talented roster, but they were loaded with MLB ready minor league talent. But in retrospect that talent is still at least a year away. 

Throw in the fact that Baltimore lost yesterday at home, and we have a team with a ton of pressure on them. Taking on the Royals team playing with found money. Yes, Baltimore should be a slight favorite here, but not nearly as high as the betting markets have them. We expected something in the -125 range here, and yet the line is much higher. Great value on what we consider to be a terrific spot for the Royals.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

Good to +120