4% Rotation #301: NFL Thursday 4% OVER 43.5 -115 in Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - I know the Falcons allowed only 18 points in Week 1 but it was all field goals! In other words, the Steelers did score on them 6 times. Since then, the Falcons have allowed more than 20 points in all 3 games. They opened up around a field goal favorite in this one with good reason. Keep in mind, at 23-20, this game is already “right there” in terms of the total. What I have liked about the Falcons offense this season is the ability to be clutch when needed. They notched wins with under a minute to go in both their victories this season. Keep in mind. they have faced some respectable defenses too in the form of the Steelers Chiefs and Saints in addition to an Eagles team that had played okay defensive until the Bucs ripped them to sheds last week. That same Bucs offense should give the Falcons D plenty of trouble here as QB Baker Mayfield has been playing very well and is coming off another big game. Atlanta, however, should absolutely respond at home this one and trade scores with the Bucs. Other than their game against the Chiefs, the Falcons have been generating a good ypc average on the ground and the TB run defense is allowing 132 yards per game and 5 ypc on the young season. Neither pass defense is great here either and can be further exploited here because I expect each team to be able to move the ball well on the ground against these sub-par rushing D units. In the climate controlled fast track, with this game in Atlanta, I expect no limitations for either offense in this one and the points should pile up here! 4% OVER 43.5 -115 in Atlanta