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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(343) Boston College at (344) Virginia

Event:
(343) Boston College at (344) Virginia
Sport/League:
CFB
Date/Time:
October 5, 2024 12PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-120
Play:
4% – Virginia -120
Result:
Win
Analysis

Boston College has quarterback Thomas Castellanos back which prompted the market to bet Boston College down from +2.5 to +1 but I still think Virginia is better all around and more equipped to win this game so I thought just asking Virginia to win at -120 was a reasonable spot to jump in. 

Virginia has one of the better teams they have had in years, the 'Hoos enter play 3-1 and one bad half of football (where Maryland also played well) is the reason for the Cavaliers only setback so far.  

Virginia destroyed Coastal Carolina prior to the bye week, the Cavaliers are 2-0 in true road games this year and are 2-0 following a bye week under Tony Elliott which is encouraging for Virginia in their first ACC home game of the season.  

I think the extra week to prepare is MASSIVE for Virginia here, this is a Cavaliers defense that's much improved from last season with a solid front seven that profiles to be very strong against the run.  Boston College runs the ball A TON, Bill O'Brien has installed a run heavy offense and Castellanos is far better as a rusher.  Castellanos has been mistake prone as a passer throwing 13 interceptions to go with his 15 touchdown passes last season.  The splits have been better for Castellanos so far this year but against the one really good defense he's faced (Missouri) he threw both of his 2024 interceptions.  

I think this underrated defense and playing on the road might force Castellanos into a few tough throws here.  That's not the game Boston College wants to play and I think Anthony Colandrea and the Virginia offense can do enough when they have the football to ease past BC here.

Play on Virginia -120 for 4% (or 4 units)

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