Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Pittsburgh Steelers -145

Let's fade a banged up Dallas Cowboys team. No Micah Parsons and no DeMarcus Lawrence. That is a devastating blow to this defense that was dead last in the league against the run, prior to facing the sorry Giants.  Meanwhile, I look for the Steelers defense to have its way against Dak Prescott and a Cowboys offense that isn’t as good as last year. Plus, we’re getting a big coaching mismatch with Mike Tomlin going against Mike McCarthy. Get this: Tomlin is 10-1 ATS all-time following a game in which the Steelers trailed by 14 or more at the half. Bottom line: he gets his teams UP following a disappointing performance. Meanwhile, McCarthy is 0-7 ATS as Dallas HC when facing an opponent with a win percentage between .600 and .750. I’d play Pittsburgh ML here as they often win close. 

THE PLAY: Minnesota +9.0 (-110)

USC still hasn't won a game in the Central or Eastern Time Zones, going back to September 2012. It's nine consecutive SU losses East of the Mississippi for the Trojans, who have trailed by double digits in each of their first two Big 10 games. So who would want to lay the points here, especially with HC Lincoln Riley being a miserable 8-18-1 ATS all-time as a road favorite? 

Three straight weeks USC has benefited from facing a backup QB. They lost at Michigan even though the Wolverines were basically running a service academy offense (just 32 yards passing!). Falling behind by 11 at home to Wisconsin last week was just as damning as losing to the Wolverines. Yes, the USC defense is improved, but it still allowed Michigan to run for 290 yards at 6.2 YPC. 

Minnesota should have success running the ball here with Darius Taylor and QB Max Brosmer, the transfer from New Hampshire, looks pretty good as well. This figures to be a fairly low-scoring affair - with points at a premium - so naturally backing the underdog seems logical.