Drew Martin

THE PLAY: Cleveland Guardians +100 M Boyd (LHP) Must Start

The home dog is barking in a “Ride the hot and fade the cold” situation. Cleveland catching the (+100) price is the play. Matt Boyd has been straight cash for the Guardians. The lefty has not given up more than 1 earned run in any of his last four starts and has a (2.10) ERA on the season. Pablo Lopez has been decent overall for the Twins, however one of his worst outings of the year was against this Guardians lineup, giving up 4 runs and only posting 2 strikeouts. 

Cleveland comes in winning two straight and five of their last seven overall as opposed to the Twins dropping six of their last nine overall. The Guardians are one of the most profitable teams in baseball up double digit units year to date, as opposed to Minnesota down double digit units. Plus price for the Guardians is the play. 

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THE PLAY: Florida Gators Season Wins Over 5 (+105)

Going against the grain to start off the 2024 college football season, taking a stab with the team the masses are starting to write their obituary. Florida comes into the 2024 season with their head coach as the favorite to be the first coach fired. Sure, the start to Billy Napiers tenure in Gainsville has not been what the UF faithful had hoped for. Although, there is a bunch to be optimistic towards this season. 

Florida cashed in on a top 10 nationally ranked transfer portal class. The Gators were one of the youngest teams across college football last season, leading the country with seven true freshmen who played in every game. Their 37 starts by freshmen ranked fifth among power conference programs. The Gators have 204 more career starts and 10,000-plus more career snaps than a year ago. Considering Napier’s emphasis on development, massive positive progression. 

The Gators return virtually their entire coaching staff. Head coach Billy Napier enters year 3 in Gainsville, which is a “Bet on” look installing his systems and culture into the program. This man can coach too, former assistant under Nick Saban and 2 time SunBelt Conference coach of the year. He returns his starting QB Gram Mertz. Mertz shattered UF’s single-season completion percentage record (72.9%) and posted a 20:3 touchdown-interception ratio. In his second season in the same system, setting up for continued success. 

The schedule is no joke and leads into the main issue- The Gators will likely be an improved team, although will that translate to wins. I think so, remember last year this was a squad that beat Tennessee by two touchdowns, had Missouri on the ropes, winning in the 4th quarter vs FSU, competitive throughout against LSU. Can this bet blow up in our face and the Gators season unravels and Napier is sent packing? Yes, it is called gambling for a reason. I believe there is a far greater chance that Florida surprises this year and plays disciplined football behind a very talented roster. Seven home games with winnable trips to Starkville and Tallahassee. This might be the most talented (6-6) team to walk on a college football field, if they punch a bowl ticket we cash this season win total over at plus money. Bet Florida season win over 5 (+105). 

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