Bryan Leonard

THE PLAY: Philadelphia Phillies -107 R Suarez (LHP), A Civale (RHP) Must Start

905 Philadelphia at Milwaukee

Ranger Suarez is having a breakout season for the Phillies. He enters play with a 3.05 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, his xERA backs that up at 3.38. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and ground ball percentage. So he keeps the opposition off-balance, and makes them hit the ball on the ground. On the road he owns a 2.60 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, with a 72 to 16 K-BB ratio. This is also the first time he has faced the Brewers, an advantage for the pitcher. 

Aaron Civiale is only better than league average in one category. His walk rate is in the 56th percentile. Every other advanced stat shows Civale should be faded. A 3rd percentile in extension, 13th percentile in ground ball rate, and 25th percentile in whiff %. His year to date traditional numbers show a 4.57 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Since coming over to Milwaukee he has allowed 25 earned runs in 58.2 innings. 

These are two of the best hitting teams in baseball, so either team can go off on any pitching staff. But the Phillies have won 8 of 10 as of late, and look to be the deeper of these two clubs. A first five play is also a good choice in this one.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

Good to -115

THE PLAY: Michigan State +7.0 (-115)

319 Michigan State at Boston College

We expected this line to come out in the 3-4 range, so we will gladly take the current number in what is far closer to a coin flip game in our opinion. Michigan State enters play at 3-0 and have two top ten teams in Ohio State and Oregon on deck. They are coming off an easy 40-0 victory over Prairie View, while Boston College battled a very good Missouri team on the road. 

While the Spartans offense hasn’t blown anyone away, the defense is putting up some solid numbers. Through three games they have held the opposition to 2.24 ypc, and a 118.72 passer rating. Michigan State has already won at Maryland, a team we rank slightly higher than the Eagles. 

BC has looked good under Tom O’Brien, but he was a late hire so they couldn’t take full advantage of the transfer portal. And the season opening victory over Florida State doesn’t look nearly as impressive now. Last week as we mentioned, Boston College traveled to Missouri and gave them a good game. But the Tigers entered that contest a perfect 2-0 outscoring weaker opposition by a combined 89-0. They clearly overlooked BC, and almost paid the price for it. This Spartans team won’t make the same mistake. Just too many points to lay in what we expect to be a low scoring contest.

PLAY MICHIGAN STATE

Good to +6 -120

THE PLAY: Cincinnati to win the AFC North

Cincinnati to win the AFC North

Strength of schedule is a major contributor to how an NFL team performs on the field. An easy schedule can turn a mediocre team into a division winner, while a tough schedule can turn the most talented team into an also ran. 

Cincinnati has the 6th easiest schedule in the league. Despite being in the same division, the Ravens have the 29th, the Browns the 30th and the Steelers the 32nd easiest schedules. Or to put it a different way, three of the four toughest schedules in the league. 

The Bengals get to play some of the expected worst teams in the league. New England, Washington, Carolina, the NY Giants, Las Vegas, Tennessee and Denver. They also are coming off a season in which Joe Burrow was lost for the year after week 10. The team ranked 26th in quarterback health. He just wasn’t healthy last year, and yet the Bengals won 9 games. 

With a healthy QB and an easy schedule, we see this club having a major step up on the competition. 

PLAY CINCINNATI TO WIN THE AFC NORTH