Teddy Covers

THE PLAY: Baltimore Ravens -115

Take Baltimore on the Moneyline (#471)

Let me start with an excerpt from what I wrote over the summer, recommending an UNDER bet on the Cowboys season win total.

“My numbers show that last year -- using my power rating for their opponent the week the game was played -- the Cowboys played a shockingly weak schedule, second weakest of any playoff team.  Dallas has nowhere to do but down.  They’ve won 36 games over the past three seasons - only the Chiefs have more victories. The highest scoring offense in the league in 2023 is primed to take a step back in 2024. Dallas lost elite defensive coordinator Dan Quinn in the offseason; now the head coach in Washington. Da’Ron Bland set an NFL record with FIVE interceptions returned for touchdowns last year - he won’t do that again. They finished +10 in turnover margin last year -- only 16 giveaways -- again, difficult numbers to repeat.  Dallas is not primed to be a run stuffing team either; mediocre in that regard last season.”

The Cowboys last two home games have been nothing short of disastrous, a team who’s homefield I don’t trust right now. The Cowboys were non-competitive in a 44-19 defeat last week against New Orleans, on the heels of a 48-32 playoff loss to Green Bay.  This is not a trustworthy defense right now, and the Cowboys rebuilt OL is a unit still loaded with question marks.

The database shows that winless teams off a home loss – like Baltimore --are a 65% ATS proposition, 79-43-3 against the number on the road the following week.   John Harbaugh off a loss?  21-11 ATS (with two pushes) in his last 34 tries.  Wirth Buffalo on tap next Sunday Night followed by a trip to Cincinnati the following week, there’s real urgency for the Ravens right here, right now, while Dallas has the lowly Giants on deck in a short turnaround Thursday Night affair. Bottom line: the Ravens are road chalk here for good reason!  In this pointspread range, I want my favorites on the moneyline…..  Take Baltimore Moneyline.

THE PLAY: LSU -25.0 (-110)

Take LSU (#390)

The UCLA Bruins are primed for an U-G-L-Y 2024 and despite their dismal start, the betting markets are still lagging behind.  Make no mistake about it – Chip Kelly left the cupboards bare when he quit to become Ohio State’s offensive coordinator – recruiting here has NOT been what it should be. First year, first time head coach Deshaun Foster has no answers right now.  UCLA couldn’t move the football against Hawaii in Week 1, and it’s not like the Warriors are known for their defensive acumen.  Last week, Indiana scored on every possession, punting for the first time on their final possession with a 4+ TD lead.  It’s certainly not going to get easier this week against an LSU squad who has gone 0-3 ATS in early season play – no betting bandwagon for Brian Kelly’s squad just yet. The offense struggled Week 1 against USC, the defense struggled last week against South Carolina.  Here, at home, stepping down in class against a team that isn’t battle tested in the slightest, look for some complimentary football from the home favorite. Garrett Nussmeier (70% completions, 10-2 TD-INT ratio) can pick apart this defense; UCLA’s moribund offense isn’t capable of trading points with anybody these days.  LSU at -21 or higher L3 seasons?  6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS.  Expect a blowout!  Take LSU.