Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Aston Villa/Everton BTTS - NO (+105)

2% Aston Villa/Everton BTTS - NO (2:30 ET): What was old is new again with Everton as David Moyes makes his return to Goodison Park some 12 years after leaving the club for Manchester United. Moyes is replacing Sean Dyche, whose tactics had long worn thin with the club’s supporters. Everton had an absolutely dreadful 2024 with one of the worst records in any level of English football (only 8 wins). I faded them in what ended up being Dyche’s final match, a 1-0 loss to Bournemouth where the Toffees failed to register even a single shot. While perhaps the nadir under Dyche, it was also indicative of the inept attack we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. Everton has scored the 2nd fewest goals in the Premier League this season with 15. 

Aston Villa has the starkest home vs. road splits in the entire EPL. So the fact they are away for Wednesday’s fixture is not encouraging. Unai Emery’s side has lost five straight away and conceded multiple goals in all five defeats. But one reason for optimism here is that Villa have performed quite well here in the past at Goodison Park where they are unbeaten their past five trips. Even more encouraging is the fact they have not conceded in any of the last three visits. 

Everton has played once since the Dyche firing, beating lower level Peterborough United 2-0 in the FA Cup. But this will be Moyes’ official return to the club. On the bright side, the Toffees did defend well under Dyche, conceding the second fewest goals in the league over their last 10 matches. For the season, they are tied for the fifth fewest goals allowed in the entire Premier League. But they’ve scored just one goal in the L5 matches. The BTTS prop has seen the NO cash in a league-high 68% of their matches this season, including a staggering 9 of the last 10. I can’t see the style of play changing too much in Moyes’ first match. Against a Villa side that struggles so mightily on the road, I can’t see both teams scoring here. 2% Aston Villa/Everton BTTS - No (Play to -130)