Bryan Leonard

THE PLAY: Total Over 57.0 (-108)

369 Tennessee at Arkansas

Through four games the Volunteers are outscoring the opposition on average 54-7. They have a net rushing average of plus 4.32 yards per attempt. This is likely the most explosive offense in the nation and Arkansas can do little to contain them. Tennessee had an extra week to prepare after outlasting Oklahoma on the road 25-15. It took a while for the offense to come around in that one, which should have kept this team focused at practice. Tennessee has a four game home stand after this, including hosting Alabama. 

Arkansas is 2-2 vs FBS opposition in facing Oklahomas State, UAB, Auburn and Texas A&M. The running game has been good averaging 5.92 ypc, which should be enough to move the ball and score some points. 

With Tennessee having an extra week to prepare after offensive struggles at Oklahoma, we expect this game to surpass the posted total.

PLAY OVER

THE PLAY: California +10.5 (-110)

360 Miami at California

While this is the third true road game for the Hurricanes, it’s the first time they have left the state of Florida. They have faced Florida, Florida A&M and South Florida. It’s also a tough spot for the visitor, with the second half comeback against Virginia Tech, and facing ranked Louisville on the road next week. Miami lost to the Cardinals 38-31 last year. Miami has been able to run the ball at will this year, averaging 5.92 ypc. But it’s the passing game that has been outstanding. With a 193.14 passer rating, to go along with a 19 to 4 TD to INT mark. The pass defense has also been very impressive, and Miami has permitted just 15 points per game. That said, it’s not easy to travel all the way to the other side of the country and win by double digits. 

The Bears have hosted two non-conference opponents, but both were from California. The Bears are 3-1 on the season, with the only loss coming at Florida State two weeks ago. California needs to win with its defense, and thus far they are allowing just 12.8 ppg. 

Miami has by far the better offense, but Cal has a coaching staff that has excelled under Justin Wilcox in the underdog role. With the extra week to prepare it’s tough to fade the Bears here. We look for a tighter game than the books project.

PLAY CALIFORNIA

THE PLAY: Cincinnati to win the AFC North

Cincinnati to win the AFC North

Strength of schedule is a major contributor to how an NFL team performs on the field. An easy schedule can turn a mediocre team into a division winner, while a tough schedule can turn the most talented team into an also ran. 

Cincinnati has the 6th easiest schedule in the league. Despite being in the same division, the Ravens have the 29th, the Browns the 30th and the Steelers the 32nd easiest schedules. Or to put it a different way, three of the four toughest schedules in the league. 

The Bengals get to play some of the expected worst teams in the league. New England, Washington, Carolina, the NY Giants, Las Vegas, Tennessee and Denver. They also are coming off a season in which Joe Burrow was lost for the year after week 10. The team ranked 26th in quarterback health. He just wasn’t healthy last year, and yet the Bengals won 9 games. 

With a healthy QB and an easy schedule, we see this club having a major step up on the competition. 

PLAY CINCINNATI TO WIN THE AFC NORTH