Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-125)

Real Madrid vs Villarreal
La Liga, Saturday, 3pm ET

Play: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals 
Odds at Time of Release: -125
Line Parameter: Playable to -135

Real Madrid are coming off a rare loss in the Champions League mid-week, as they fell 1-0 on the road to Lille. Prior to that they had a 1-1 draw against Atletico Madrid in the Madrid derby last week, so Real Madrid are win-less in back to back matches, something that's really uncharacteristic of them. Now back home to make things right, but they are up against a dangerous Villarreal side that can definitely score goals. Real Madrid with just 3 clean sheets in 10 matches so far (and zero clean sheets in L/5), but their offense looks good and Mbappe is going to be there. 

Villarreal are 8-0 to the Both Teams to Score, and 7-1 to the Over 2.5 goals (and 4-4 to the Over 3.5 Goals). They have only lost to Barcelona so far (W5 D2 L1), and a big loss too (by 5-1 at home), having scored in all matches so far, and scoring 2+ goals in 6 of 8. But their defense is bad, with zero clean sheets so far and conceding 2+ goals in 4 of 8. 

This H2H has produced a LOT of goals in recent years, with a 4-4 draw the last time they met and a 5-0 run to the Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals, and with each of L/4 going to the Over 3.5 Goals. Also, 5 of L/6 H2H matches in this venue had Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals. And as a mention, this is not a play but just a thought, the draw at +550 and Villarreal ML at +850 are a bit too disgraceful, big odds there but I cannot easily fade Real here. 

Take 2% on a Same Game Parlay with Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-125), playable to -135