Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Los Angeles Kings -1.5 (+130)

Los Angeles returns home with a clear situational edge after two one-goal results in a row, while Pittsburgh arrives off a 4–3 loss in Anaheim where it surrendered a 2–0 lead and took the penalty that preceded the winner. Recent reports have the Penguins’ core pieces available, including Kris Letang after a brief lower-body scare, and nothing new for the Kings beyond their early goalie rotation. Form-wise, the Kings showed sustained 5-on-5 offense in a 6–5 shootout win at Vegas, then went 0-for-5 on the power play in a 3–2 loss to Winnipeg. The travel and quick turnaround tilt the spot toward Los Angeles with last change at home and Pittsburgh carrying a late-game collapse into the second leg of its SoCal set.

The matchup profile favors Los Angeles to create margin. At five-on-five, the Kings’ forecheck and cycle can pin the Penguins’ second pair and generate slot tips for their top six. Special teams set up for a bounce after the 0-for-5 night against Winnipeg, while Pittsburgh’s late penalty trouble in Anaheim underscores leverage moments where the Kings can separate. If Pittsburgh counters by leaning on early surges from its veterans, Los Angeles can answer with matchup discipline, cleaner entries, and a steadier penalty kill at home.

Given the form, situational advantages, and special-teams regression indicators, the Kings project to carry more of the five-on-five play and convert at least one power-play opportunity, creating third-period separation and empty-net potential. The recommended play is Kings -1.5 (+130), playable at +115 or better. Add one unit on the Kings moneyline at -200 as protection so that a single-goal win results in a push on the game outcome across the two positions.

THE PLAY: Total Under 44.5 (-110)

Both teams enter London off under games that reinforced their defensive and structural identities. The Rams defeated Baltimore 17–3 behind a physical front that limited explosive plays and controlled field position. Los Angeles’ offense dialed back its aggressiveness after Puka Nacua’s ankle and foot injury, leaning on time of possession and shorter gains. Jacksonville, meanwhile, dropped a 20–12 decision to Seattle in a game defined by offensive breakdowns. Trevor Lawrence was pressured on more than half of his dropbacks and took seven sacks. Those protection issues are difficult to fully correct in one week, and when paired with Nacua’s uncertainty, both teams carry offensive question marks into this neutral-site matchup.

Efficiency data supports a measured scoring projection. The Rams rank 14th in EPA per play (0.03) and the Jaguars sit 16th (0.02), both operating near league-average with modest success rates…48% for Los Angeles and 44% for Jacksonville. The Rams already play at one of the slowest tempos in the NFL, and Sean McVay’s offense, which runs 11 personnel on 78% of plays, becomes even more methodical if Nacua’s workload is limited. On the other side, Jacksonville’s recent protection issues suggest a shift toward quicker throws and chip help, both of which suppress explosive-play potential. 

Historical and situational trends further strengthen the Under. Neutral-site favorites heading into a bye are 13–4 (76.5%) to the Under since 2017, a reflection of teams prioritizing control and health in these unique scheduling spots. Both offenses average just over 23 points per game, but their current form, injuries, and London’s travel effects all shave expected output below raw season averages. The play is Under 45, playable down to 43 with reduced stake.

THE PLAY: Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.25 (-127)

Sunderland enter as slight home favorites, the hosts have struggled to convert possession into high-quality chances, underscored by ongoing debate over whether Brian Brobbey should start up front as the club searches for finishing consistency. Wolves, meanwhile, have steadied after a volatile August that included a 0–1 loss at Bournemouth followed by a 3–2 League Cup win over West Ham. Recent form points to resilience, two straight league draws show a side trending toward tighter margins and improved defensive structure. With no major rest disparity and both teams in standard preparation windows, the environment projects evenly balanced rather than one where the home side dictates comfortably.

Sunderland’s unsettled striker rotation limits chemistry and finishing reliability, while Wolves’ have motivation to get their first PL win of the season as well as momentum from recent non-loss results. The matchup tilts toward control and containment rather than chaos…precisely the setup where +0.25 delivers outsized value through draw equity. Play Wolves +0.25…expect a cautious, compact affair that rewards the road dog’s improving form and steady defensive floor.

THE PLAY: Chelsea -0.5 (-110)

Chelsea enter this weekend as short road favorites at Nottingham Forest. The pricing aligns with recent form…Chelsea are fresh off a dramatic 2–1 victory over Liverpool that showcased their resilience despite injuries, while Forest fell 0–2 at Newcastle in a match where they were out-shot 18–5 and struggled to sustain meaningful possession. Forest’s lack of attacking spark under Postecoglou has intensified managerial pressure, and with no key reinforcements returning from injury, their offensive issues remain systemic rather than personnel-based. Chelsea’s squad depth and form momentum provide a clear contrast, particularly with several players coming back after missing time for various reasons.

From a matchup standpoint, Chelsea’s technical edge and superior match-winners position them well in what projects as a controlled, low-event game. Chelsea’s creative structure and midfield control remain intact, allowing them to dictate tempo against a Forest side that’s been territorially dominated in recent weeks. The hosts’ recurring trend of conceding first and their tendency to play conservatively under pressure reduce upset potential and play directly into the visitors’ quality advantage. Chelsea's confidence lift off the Liverpool result, combined with Forest’s continuing creative drought, supports a Chelsea outright win.