The Gold Sheet

THE PLAY: Western Kentucky +2.5 (-110)

These teams share an interesting data point, because the last opponent for both teams was UTEP. Sam Houston closed as a 10-point road favorite at UTEP on October 3 and Western Kentucky closed as an 18.5-point home favorite against UTEP on October 10. The Bearkats beat the Miners by 20 and the Hilltoppers beat the Miners by 27. You have to make an adjustment because Sam Houston played UTEP on the road and Western Kentucky played the Miners at home, but with the data point as a reference, how did we end up with Sam Houston laying 2.5 points in this matchup? Using that data point, the betting market essentially said Western Kentucky was about five points better than Sam Houston two weeks ago. What has changed since then? Sam Houston is playing much better in its second season at the FBS level, but Western Kentucky is also out-performing market expectations this season (7-1 ATS run dating back to last year). The Hilltoppers closed as a 10-point home favorite in this matchup in mid-November last season. Home field advantage gets flipped, but outside of that, this point spread suggests that Sam Houston has closed a 10-point gap in the betting market since these teams last played. We're not quite ready to make that leap.