Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Total Over 9.0 (-105) Zac Gallen (RHP), Michael McGreevy (RHP) Must Start

Looking at this matchup, I don't have much faith in either of the two starting pitchers. I bet the Over (9.0) in Zac Gallen's last start for Arizona. Gallen got rocked, giving up nine runs in just four innings, and I cashed my bet by the top of the fifth inning! It has been absolutely miserable season for Gallen thus far, particularly on the road where he has a 6.98 ERA and 1.81 WHIP.

For St. Louis, it will be Michael McGreevy getting the starting nod tonight. He's one of those guys where there's a significant gap between actual (3.35) and expected (5.69) ERA. That's typically a sign that regression could be the horizon. Sure enough, in his most recent start, McGreevy allowed five runs in five innings. He does not strike a lot of batters out either.

With the belief that both starting pitchers struggle here, I think betting the Over is the right call. The Over cashed last night here at Busch Stadium as the D'backs won 9-4. The Cardinals don't score as much at home as they do on the road, but a matchup with Gallen is ideal in for any lineup in any venue. Hopefully (fingers crossed) this game doesn't get rained out!

THE PLAY: Germany -165

Full disclosure - I was all set to release Germany as a 4% Best Bet when they were -105 on the 3-way line. Then the price shot way up and I got cold feet. The price has since come down a little at several sportsbooks. Since Germany is the side I clearly prefer, here are my thoughts for those who still may be interested ...

I know that Germany has already clinched a spot in the knockout stage as well as first place in Group E. Meanwhile, Ecuador (who has been terribly unlucky in their first two matches) is facing a "must-win" scenario if they are to move onto the Round of 32. But - as I discussed thoroughly on WagerTalk Today yesterday (when breaking down Mexico-Czechia) - "must win" does not necessarily mean "will win."

Even a rotated starting XI for Germany should be able to defeat Ecuador. Die Mannschaft have won 11 consecutive matches overall while scoring two or more goals in 10 of those victories. Yes, Curacao is bad and the Germans certainly "left it late" against Ivory Coast (I was just thankful to cash BTTS & Over 2.5). But Ecuador couldn't score against either of those two sides, despite 3.85 xG from 39 shots, 16 of which were on target. An inability to score has long been a problem for La Tricolor, who found the back of the net just 14 times in 18 qualifying matches. Bottom line: it just isn't meant to be for Ecuador in this World Cup.