Bryan Power

THE PLAY: 2-Team, 6-Point Teaser: Falcons +8.5 and Bucs -2.5

This is a standard 2-team, 6-point Wong Teaser where we're going through the key numbers of 3 and 7.

I know the Falcons' current QB situation seems rather dire. For the second straight week, it will be Cooper Rush getting the start. This is not by choice, but rather out of necessity for 1st year HC Kevin Stefanski. Nevertheless, if there was ever an opportunity for Bijan Robinson and this Falcons offense to shine, it might be here as they face a Carolina defense that just gave up 59 points and 552 yards last week. For what it's worth, Atlanta could have won at Pittsburgh in Week 1, if not for two missed field goals and a pick six. My power ratings still make them a slight favorite at home for this NFC South matchup. So teasing up them to +8.5 makes a lot of sense to me.

For the second teaser leg, we will tease the Buccaneers down from -8.5 to -2.5. Full disclosure - the Bucs are my survivor pick for NFL Week 2. This is more about wanting to fade a Browns team that is stubbornly starting the hideous Deshaun Watson. It might be our last shot at fading Watson. If he plays poorly again (and I anticipate that he will), there's a strong chance Watson gets benched for next week's home opener. All of Watson's numbers last week vs. Jacksonville were awful. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay could have won at Cincinnati if not for four turnovers. QB Baker Mayfield will be eager to atone for that poor performance, especially against his former team, which shunned him years ago. This should get ugly. But I'd rather not lay more than one score.

THE PLAY: 2-team Parlay: South Alabama ML + Louisiana ML (-120)

This is a two-team ML parlay. We'll "only" need both Sun Belt teams simply to win straight up, which - for reasons that I am about to get into - does not seem like asking for much.

2% ML Parlay (South Alabama & Louisiana) - South Alabama was a hard-luck loser last week at Tulane. I say that based on the Jaguars finishing +12 in first downs and +2.2 in yards per play differential. In what was a back and forth game, Tulane scored the GW TD in the final 90 seconds. At least USA still left New Orleans with the cover as 9-point road dogs. This week looks like a clear bounce back spot at home, against an Ohio team off an extremely fortunate 4OT win over Jacksonville State. The Bobcats were outgained by 220 yards in the 30-28 victory as they lost their top two quarterbacks to injuries. Ohio is my alma mater, so I have a good sense when to fade them. At home, they have not lost a game SU since 2023. But they're only 5-8 SU L13 on the road including 49-21 (+23.5) at Nebraska to open this season. No matter who ends up playing QB for OU, they won't be as good as USA's senior signal caller Bishop Davenport.

The other Sun Belt side we're looking at here is Louisiana. They're 2-0 ATS to start the season with a strong +1.6 YPP differential, despite having just faced USC last week. The Ragin Cajuns easily covered the 29.5-point spread out in LA even with giving up a punt return for a TD. (Final score was 49-30). Big drop in class this week, hosting UAB, who at least had the good sense to rid themselves of the odious Trent Dilfer last season. The Blazers did not cover the number (-9.5) LW at home vs. UL Monroe. In fact, they needed a late rally just for the 26-20 win. Now UAB did play well in the season opener at Illinois (+7 first downs!) But, I don't see them running the ball as effectively in this matchup. UAB is just 2-13-1 ATS off a SU win L4 years. My power ratings do show value at the current number, but asking for the SU win is easier. ULL QB Lunch Winfield will be the difference. 2% ML Parlay (South Alabama & Louisiana)