The Gold Sheet

THE PLAY: UTSA -16.5 (-110)

How bad was Temple's 18-15 overtime win over Florida Atlantic last week? So bad that BOTH head coaches got fired after the game. Owls' kicker Maddux Trujillo made four field goals, including a pair of 50-yarders, to give Temple its third win of the season. The Owls' regular season win total closed at 2.5, so Temple actually out-performed preseason expectations but that wasn't enough for Stan Drayton to keep his job. Temple's struggles over the last two seasons can mostly be pointed toward a non-existent run game, which has put increased pressure on the Owls' quarterbacks. In last year's meeting, the Owls had a total of 68 rushing yards on 26 carries (2.6 yards per rush) against the RoadRunners' defense. Temple is No. 125 in EPA per rush attempt and No. 131 in rushing success rate this season. UTSA's defense is No. 13 in EPA per rush attempt allowed, so the RoadRunners should be able to turn the Owls into a one-dimensional offense once again.

THE PLAY: Total Over 37.0 (-110)

The big story in this one is the potential weather that we will see on the shores of Lake Erie, which has sent the total down to 37 on Wednesday. Early forecasts are calling for poor conditions Wednesday into Thursday afternoon. It doesn't seem like there will be too much wind and precipitation on Thursday night, and this total may have dropped a little too far. Poor field conditions will slow down a pass rush, and you've got two of the best in this one with Myles Garrett on one side and TJ Watt on the other. Those guys need good field conditions to generate the necessary speed and leverage to rush the quarterbacks. Poor field conditions also hurt defensive backs. Wide receivers know their routes and know where they need to stop. Defensive backs don't. Neither team has been particularly good at running the football this season. Cleveland is No. 29 in EPA per rush attempt and No. 29 in rushing success rate. Pittsburgh is also outside the top-20 in both categories. If neither team is particularly good at running the ball and wind is unlikely to affect the passing attack, we may see a better offensive flow than expected. Four of the Steelers' last five games have gone over the total. Cleveland's offense generated 443 total yards on 6.3 yards per play last week against the Saints, but the Browns were doomed by poor execution on third down.