Nick Borrman

THE PLAY: Total UNDER 3.0 (-105)

England Premier League

(200041) Everton at (200042) Manchester City

In their first 13 matches this season, Man City was unbeaten with nine wins and four draws between Community Shield, EPL and UCL.  Since then, City has won just ONE match over their last 12 in all comps.  An unbelievable regression for one of the best teams over the last several years.

Man City averaged 2.3 goals scored per match while allowing only 0.77 in those first 13 games.  Over their last 12, those numbers have reversed to scoring just 1.17 goals per match while allowing 2.25 including allowing at least two goals in 11 of those 12.

There were signs things were turning even before that though as even when City was winning it was by slim margins.  After starting their season 3-0 ATS, they have since gone 3-18 ATS in all comps!  What a flip.

Similarly, Everton 0-3 ATS to start the season but since have lost ATS only two times in their last 13 matches.  Much of that can be attributed to their defense which has kept five clean sheets in their last six matches including Chelsea and Arsenal.  Going back even further, after allowing at least three goals in their first four matches of the season, they have since allowed more than one goal only once over their last 12 games.  A dramatic turnaround.

This play is on City's offensive struggles combined with Everton's defensive form plus their own offensive ineptness (held scoreless in six of their last seven games).

TAKE UNDER 3.0 GOALS

Line Parameter: 3% to -125, 2.5% to -140