Bryan Power

THE PLAY: REGULATION Udinese 0.0 (-135)

Verona may have temporarily escaped the drop zone with last week’s dramatic 3-2 win over in-form Bologna. However, let’s note a few key things from that match. One is that Bologna was down to 10 men after the 51st minute. The score was tied (2-2) when Tommaso Pobega was sent off. Then, it was a Bologna own-goal (in the 88th minute) that handed Verona all three points, arguably quite undeserved given that they lost the xG battle by a pretty substantial margin (2.86 to 0.80). Understat still has Verona last in the league in xPts (expected points) and they are also dead last in xGD (expected goal difference). 

Truth be told, Verona was fortunate to escape relegation last season as they had the second fewest number of xPts and were also near the bottom in xGD. This has simply been a bad club for some time now. They easily have Serie A’s worst defensive record with 42 goals conceded and have yet to keep a single clean sheet in 15 league matches this season. Furthermore, Verona has lost three straight at home while getting outscored on aggregate 10-1. They have yet to draw once here at the Stadio Bentegodi, so I’ll take my chances fading the Gialloblu here, knowing if things were to finish even, our bet would push. 

Udinese barely survived relegation themselves last season, finishing 15th, but underlying metrics suggested they were better than their record. Even though they are pretty firmly a mid-table side (9th) this season, I certainly don’t see them losing this one. They should have won last week, but had to settle for a 2-2 draw with Torino after conceding the final two goals . But remember before that, Udinese beat top five Fiorentina (2-1) away. A curious stat for this team is that they have scored the second most “headers” (8) in all of Europe’s top five leagues, trailing only Serie A leaders Atalanta. 

THE PLAY: Total Under 147.5 (-108)

Both teams picked up big wins in Big East play earlier in the week. Marquette slaughtered Providence on the road, 78-50 as a 6.5-point favorite. Meanwhile, Creighton - playing at home - was able to outlast St. John’s 57-56. One cause for concern though with Creighton is that they turned the ball over 19 times against the Johnnies. Marquette is not a team that turns it over very much, only 8.9 times per game. Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles are also forcing an average of 16.4 turnovers per game. 

Now, my power ratings are right in line with the market, which have Marquette as a 9.5-point favorite. So gonna pass when it comes to playing the side. Now the total is 147.5. Creighton has been held to exactly 57 points in two of its last three games. Not to mention, they scored only 53 in a loss to San Diego State earlier this year. So when they lose, the Bluejays typically struggle offensively. They are underdogs here, so how about taking the Under?