Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Vinicius Jr. to be carded (+700)

Real Madrid vs Salzburg
Champions League, Wednesday, 3pm ET

Play: Vini Jr to be carded
Odds at Time of Release: +700
Line Parameter: Line good to +500

By the same token, we will look for players to be carded in the Real Madrid vs Salzburg game, as Modric and Vini Jr have 2 cards each, and Real Madrid are now playing against a bad Salzburg side at home, while being hosted by a very tricky Brest side in the final match day of the league phase. 

This situation is slightly different, as Real Madrid are not that comfortable in terms of points, nor do they have an easy match coming up, while both Modric and Vini Jr are eager to play, but the logic is still the same. Get carded now, serve your suspension in the league phase and have a clean slate for the knock-outs. 

And there are some massive numbers on these players to be carded (make sure to shop around), as Modric is at a whopping +1400 at B365 (+800 at FD), and Vini Jr is +700 at FD (and +500 at B365). These are definitely worth betting as singles, and maybe as a 2-player parlay.

Take 0.5% on Vini Jr to be carded (+700), line good to +500

THE PLAY: REGULATION Nicolo Barella to be carded (+390)

Sparta Prague vs Inter Milan
Champions League, Wednesday, 3pm ET

Play: Nicolo Barella to be carded 
Odds at Time of Release: +390
Line Parameter: Line good to +275

Using the same logic here, as Inter Milan are comfortable in the league phase and have a seemingly easy match against Sparta Prague, where they have a chance to seal the qualification, while their last match is at home against Monaco. 

Inter Milan's only player at the brink of suspension is midfielder Nicolo Barella, who is at +390 to be carded at FanDuel (+275 at B365), and at these odds we are going to include him in our card props for Wednesday.

Take 0.5% Nicolo Barella to be carded (+390), line good to +275
 

THE PLAY: REGULATION Leon Goretzka to be carded (+550)

Feyenoord vs Bayern Munich
Champions League, Wednesday, 3pm ET

Play: Leon Goretzka to be carded
Odds at Time of Release: +550
Line Parameter: Line good to +350

Bayern Munich are hosted by Feyenoord and are back at home for their last match of the league phase, where they will play host to lowly Slovan Bratislava. Right now they have 2 players at the brink of suspension, as they both have 2 cards each, and another card means that they will have to serve a 1-match ban (Goretzka and Gnabry). 

Now this is a trick that we always use in competitions like this, and the logic is that some times players are intentionally getting carded in order to serve their suspension in an easy match (in this case the one against Slovan Bratislava), and have a clean slate ahead of the knock-outs. 

Take 0.5% on Leon Goretzka to be carded (+550 at FD), line good to +350

THE PLAY: REGULATION Luka Modric to be carded (+1400)

Real Madrid vs Salzburg
Champions League, Wednesday, 3pm ET

Play: Luka Modric to be carded
Odds at Time of Release: +1400
Line Parameter: Line good to +800

By the same token, we will look for players to be carded in the Real Madrid vs Salzburg game, as Modric and Vini Jr have 2 cards each, and Real Madrid are now playing against a bad Salzburg side at home, while being hosted by a very tricky Brest side in the final match day of the league phase. 

This situation is slightly different, as Real Madrid are not that comfortable in terms of points, nor do they have an easy match coming up, while both Modric and Vini Jr are eager to play, but the logic is still the same. Get carded now, serve your suspension in the league phase and have a clean slate for the knock-outs. 

And there are some massive numbers on these players to be carded (make sure to shop around), as Modric is at a whopping +1400 at B365 (+800 at FD), and Vini Jr is +600 at FD (and +500 at B365). These are definitely worth betting as singles, and maybe as a 2-player parlay.

Take 0.5% on Luka Modric to be carded (+1400), line good to +800

THE PLAY: REGULATION Total Under 3.25 (-124)

PSG vs Manchester City
Champions League, Wednesday, 3pm ET

Play: Under 3.25 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -124
Line Parameter: Line good to -135, otherwise take the Under 3 (with a chance of a Push)

Huge match in the Champions League on Wednesday, with two powerhouses cornered in a tight spot as PSG will play host to Manchester City. PSG are +138 favourites, the Draw is at +289, and Manchester City are +174 underdogs, with the Asian Spread set at 0.25 and the Asian Total set at 3.25. We like the Under 3.25 on this one, and here's why: 

PSG are currently sitting outside of the qualification spots with 7 points (W2 D1 L3) and a 0 goal difference, and their last match is away at Stuttgart, who will probably be looking for points as well. They have struggled at home so far (W1 D1 L1), with a 1-0 win vs Girona (late own goal), a 1-1 draw against PSV and a 2-1 loss to Atletico Madrid, so 3-0 to the Under 3.5 Goals. 

Manchester City are sitting at the 22nd spot with 8 points (W2 D2 L2) and a +4 goal difference, and their last match is at home against Club Brugge, a dangerous side that could upset. City are coming off a deep crisis, having pieced together a 6-match unbeaten streak in all competitions (W4 D2 L0), albeit with very weak opposition in that span. They might not be out of the woods just yet. City are W1 L2 on the road so far, with a 4-0 win at Slova Bratislava (one of the worst teams in this competition), a 4-1 loss to Sporting (right at the start of City's crisis), and a 2-0 loss to Juventus. They know that a potential loss on Wednesday might turn this season into an absolute nightmare, so we might see a more conservative approach). 

The two teams have met 4 times over the last 5 years, with City winning 3 and losing one, with all 4 matches going to the Under 3.5 Goals and 2 of them going to the Under 2.5 Goals. 

Both teams should be very careful not to fall behind here, because a loss could prove to be catastrophic for their qualification chances. The Asian Total is set at 3.25, which is a split line between 3 and 3.5 and we are taking the Under 3.25 Goals (-124) here.

Take 2% on the Under 3.25 Goals (-124), line good to -135, otherwise take the Under 3 Goals (with a chance of a push).