Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Houston Rockets Total Under 118.5 (-115)

Why the Rockets Will Struggle to Hit Their Team Total

The Rockets have consistently gone under their team total in these spots, going 9-3 to the under on the second leg of back-to-back games. When facing another team also on a back-to-back (like the Jazz), Houston is 4-0 to the under in that scenario. This isn’t a coincidence—fatigue sets in, pace slows down, and offensive efficiency drops.

That’s exactly what we’ve seen from Houston recently:

• 28th in offensive rating over the last 10 games
• Dead last in effective field goal percentage during that span
• 24th in turnover rate, further hindering their scoring opportunities

Even with Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun carrying the offensive load, Houston’s lack of three-point shooting (33.9%) and poor shot selection make it difficult to consistently hit high-scoring marks, especially on tired legs.

Why Utah’s Defense Can Do Just Enough

While the Jazz defense ranks poorly overall, they’ve shown competency defending the paint, where the Rockets attempt most of their shots. Houston’s inability to stretch the floor (one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the league) plays into Utah’s hands, negating one of their biggest defensive vulnerabilities.

Final Prediction: Rockets Team Total Under 118.5

With both teams dealing with fatigue, Houston’s recent offensive struggles, and Utah’s paint defense limiting the Rockets’ primary attack zone, the best bet is the Rockets team total under 118.5. Houston has failed to surpass their team total in four straight back-to-back scenarios against teams on the same rest disadvantage, and nothing suggests a breakout offensive performance here.