Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Total Under 232.0 (-110)

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Analysis: 

The Golden State Warriors and New York Knicks meet in what sets up to be a low-scoring battle at Madison Square Garden. Over the last 10 games, both teams are bottom half of the league in pace, meaning fewer possessions and scoring opportunities. The Warriors rank 4th in defensive rating over their last 10 games and have held eight of their last 10 opponents under their team total, showcasing a renewed commitment to defense. Additionally, Golden State has been excellent at defending inside the arc, which is where the Knicks generate most of their offense. With both teams excelling defensively and playing at a slower pace, the under is a strong play.

Situational trends further support a lower-scoring game. The Warriors are playing their second game of a back-to-back and third in four nights, a strong under spot for them this season (6-3 to the under, averaging a combined 211.7 points per game). When Golden State plays on the second leg of a back-to-back, their opponents have gone under their team total in seven of the last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 3-1 to their team total under following an overtime game, and they have struggled ATS when facing teams on no rest, failing to cover in four straight games in this situation. Given the potential fatigue on both sides, a slower tempo is expected.

More trends suggest this game will stay under the total. When the Warriors play back-to-back games, they are 7-3 to their team total under, and Knicks games have gone under in four of their last five matchups where they had extra rest against a fatigued opponent. Additionally, the Warriors boast the league's top turnover rate, which should limit transition opportunities for New York and further slow the pace. With Golden State’s defensive improvements and New York’s tendency to play tight, physical basketball, under 232 is the best value bet in this matchup.