Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Texas Tech +7.0 (-110)

The Texas Tech Red Raiders enter the Elite Eight as underdogs, but their recent form and underlying metrics suggest they are being undervalued in this matchup. Winners of 17 of their last 21 games, the Red Raiders boast a top-10 national ranking per KenPom and sit fifth in offensive efficiency and 39th defensively. They’ve showcased their offensive firepower with 80.9 points per game on 47% shooting and own one of the nation’s most efficient three-point attacks (37.9%). Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin anchors a tough frontcourt, averaging 18.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, while Darrion Williams and Christian Anderson add versatile scoring threats that can challenge Florida’s wing defenders.

Despite trailing by 16 late in the second half against Arkansas, Texas Tech’s resilience and closing ability pushed them through to overtime and an eventual win. More importantly, they’ve been competitive in every tournament outing, with no game decided by more than two possessions at the half. Florida’s high-scoring attack is dangerous, but the Gators showed vulnerability in the Sweet 16, committing 17 turnovers and needing to overcome injury concerns for key big man Alex Condon. If Condon is less than 100%, Florida’s massive rebounding edge against Maryland will be hard to replicate against Toppin and the Red Raiders’ physical front line.

Florida may be the more explosive team, but Texas Tech is battle-tested and stylistically well-suited to keep this game tight. Florida’s recent dominance has come against teams that lack Texas Tech’s size and toughness inside. With Florida also dealing with turnover issues and facing a disciplined, slow-paced opponent that thrives on wearing teams down, this spread is too generous. Florida has been one of the most profitable ATS teams in the nation this year, but they've already failed to cover in two of the three tourney games. Back Texas Tech +7 to keep things close and potentially challenge outright for a trip to the Final Four.