Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Total Under 229.0 (-110)

The matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday night has all the makings of a tight, playoff-style battle — and that sets up Under 229 as the best bet on the board. Both teams are playing the first leg of a back-to-back and in a game like this, I expect both teams to play a slower pace and lock in defensively, especially as they jockey for position in a crowded Western Conference playoff picture. This isn't just a narrative angle — the data backs it up. The Warriors' opponents are 45-29 to their team total under, signaling a defense that consistently limits opponents well below market expectations.

Despite Golden State's recent offensive explosion, they’ve been playing solid defense during their 12-3 stretch, and the Lakers haven't been particularly efficient offensively. In their last outing, L.A. shot just 39% from the field and leaned on late defense to escape with a win. This game is likely to follow a similar script. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace when facing similar rest situations, and a playoff-style intensity should keep scoring runs in check. 

Further supporting the under is the recent trend from both sides: Lakers games have stayed under the total in three of their last four, while both squads have been profitable to the under when beginning back-to-back sets. The public might see stars like Curry, LeBron, and Luka and expect fireworks, but the combination of travel, fatigue, and playoff-like defensive focus makes Under 229 the smart, data-supported play in this high-stakes Western Conference showdown.

THE PLAY: New York Yankees -112 M Kelly (RHP), C Carrasco (RHP) Must Start

The New York Yankees are in a prime bounce-back position on Thursday as they look to avoid a home sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks, and the Yankees moneyline presents the strongest value. While Arizona has found success as a road underdog, the momentum shifts with New York sending veteran Carlos Carrasco to the mound, who owns a career 2.05 ERA against the D-Backs. While Merrill Kelly impressed with a 1.69 ERA in his first start, underlying metrics tell a different story. His 6.62 xFIP and four walks in 5.1 innings against a weaker Cubs lineup raise red flags—especially against a strong Yankees offense. This potent lineup is due for a breakout after being mostly quiet through the first two games of the series.

Given the underlying concerns about Kelly’s control, backing the Yankees moneyline is the sharp play in this bounce-back spot.