Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Draw +288

Barcelona vs Real Madrid
Copa del Rey Final, Saturday, 3pm ET
Play: Barcelona -0.25 (-110)

Barcelona are +128 Favourites, the Draw is at +288 and Real Madrid are +195 underdogs in this Copa del Rey Final, with the Asian Spread set at 0.25 and the Asian Total set at 3.25 Goals. 

Barcelona are the most successful team in the Spanish Cup, winning the title 31 times, with Real Madrid winning the Cup 20 times in 40 Finals. This is the 8th final between the two sides, with Real Madrid winning 4 and losing 3, and they won the last two in 2011 and 2014.

Now I was very much inclined on taking Real Madrid here, considering that they are out of the Champions League and the La Liga title is hanging by a thread - they are 4 points behind Barcelona and also have to play in Barcelona in May 11th, so the Cup is a MUST WIN for them. Especially with Lewandowski out with an injury. But, Real Madrid did something in the last few days that made me change my mind. 

Real Madrid have waged an outright WAR on the referee of this match, playing some videos with his alleged mistakes as the VAR in the match these two played earlier in the season and causing a very uncomfortable situation for this referee, who went out with tears in his eyes and said that his kids come home from school crying as they are getting bullied and other kids are calling their father a thief. 

This is simply not what you want from a referee right before the biggest game of the season (until the next one) so I'm not really sure what Real Madrid are doing here. To discredit the referee, Real Madrid also explained that Ricardo de Burgos Bengoetxea has never officiated a match in the Champions League, a European Championship or any FIFA competition, even though he has been an international since 2018.

In this incriminating video, the Madrid players also stated that they had "only a 64% win rate" with the Basque referee, while their opponent "has a win rate of 81%. An incredible difference, to which is added the fact that Ancelotti's team has only won two of the last five matches with him on the pitch.

Besides all that, this is a classic match-up between the two best teams in Spain, and the odd thing is that there hasn't been a single Draw in L/14 H2H matches regardless of competition.

This is a Cup Final and we often see these being decided in extra time or penalty kicks, and the odds are pretty good on the Draw, so after all that, we will take a shot with 1% on the Draw. 

Take 1% on the Draw (+288), line good to +275. We did put out a Free Play on Barcelona -0.25, and I still believe that after all that has transpired, the referee (who is Basque, and Basques have a big dislike towards Real Madrid dating back to 100 years ago and the Civil War in Spain), will not be unbiased in this match and might favour Barcelona here. 
 

THE PLAY: REGULATION Total Under 3.0 (-110)

Orlando vs Atlanta
MLS, Saturday, 7:15pm ET

Play: Under 3 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -110
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Orlando are coming off THREE consecutive goal-less draws vs Philadephia, the Red Bulls and Montreal, which might seem quite odd considering that Orlando's previous 6 matches ALL had Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals. The reason is simple: they changed their formation from a 4-2-3-1 to a 3-4-3 vs Philadelphia and to a 4-4-2 vs the Red Bulls and Montreal. My best guess is that they did that in order to play better defense, as they were conceding goals at an alarming rate (but were also scoring a lot). The result is that they did shape up their defense, but at the cost of the offense. Their xGA went way down, but so did their xG. If they stick to this formation, we might see another low-scoring match. 

Atlanta did the same, they started the season using a 4-2-3-1 formation in their first 7 matches of the season, but defense was bad, and so was the offense. They changed to a 4-3-3 vs New England and to a 4-4-2 vs Philadelphia and results were even worse than before, as they lost both matches without even scoring. It does take time for a team to get accustomed to a new formation, but that small sample was not good. 

The Asian Total is set at 3, and if this match was played a month ago, we would be tempted to take the Over. But both teams changed their formations recently and they are struggling offensively, the defenses got slightly better. I like the Under 3 here, and H2H suggests low scoring matches between these two, with none of L/8 H2H producing 4 goals or more, 5 of 8 went to the Under 2.5 Goals and 3 of 8 finished with exactly 3 goals. 

Take 2% on the Under 3 Goals (-110), line good to -125

THE PLAY: REGULATION Over 9 Cards (-125)

River Plate vs Boca Juniors
Argentina, Sunday, 2:30pm ET

Play: Over 9 Cards
Odds at Time of Release: -125
Line Parameter: Line good to -135

Referee Nicolas Ramirez dished out 11 cards in the other big, hateful derby he officiated in March 16 between Independiente and Racing Club, while also dishing out 9 cards in the other, smaller, derby between Lanus and Banfield. 

He was also the referee when River Plate won by 1-0 away at Boca Juniors back in September, showing 12 cards, and also showed 12 cards in the Independiente vs Racing Club last season. A good referee for cards, and he won't hesitate to reach his pocket if players give him a reason, and these players WILL give him reasons. 

Card Totals in recent H2H: 12/11/5/8/17/13/5/6/10/7/9/11/8/9/10

At least 9 cards in 9 of L/15 H2H with some real gems in that span, matches with 6 (!) red cards, a ton of fouls and a lot of nerves. 

The line is way too high, set at 9 Cards or 9.5 Cards depending on where  you look, but this is a River/Boca hateful rivalry and it's worth a shot. This is not exactly a crucial match for either side, but bad blood runs DEEP with these two. Not many books out there offer card props in this match, but B365 do have the Over 9 Cards at -125 and we like that. 

Take 2% on the Over 9 Cards (-125), line good to -135