Bryan Power

THE PLAY: REGULATION Fiorentina -123

3% Fiorentina (9:00 AM ET): Empoli needs points to avoid relegation, but hosts Fiorentina still have plenty to play for themselves. While the Viola do have Conference League semifinal (vs. Real Betis) on tap next Thursday, getting into Europe next season via Serie A is still the goal. That may very well require a top six finish. So currently being eighth in the table is not where Raffaele Palladino’s side wants to be. The good news is that Fiorentina are only three points back of the top five and four back of the top four. So a win Sunday is basically a must for their European pursuit through the league. Two of the three clubs directly ahead of them (Juventus, Lazio) are heavy favorites Saturday. 

Fiorentina helped themselves on Wednesday, winning a rescheduled match (due to the death of Pope Francis) over another bottom-tier side (Cagliari) 2-1. Now, they needed to come from behind to do so, and normally I wouldn’t be crazy about backing a side on short rest like this. But consider Empoli was in action Thursday, as they were eliminated from the Coppa Italia by Bologna. Roberto D’Aversa did heavily rotate his Starting XI, in preparation for this match, as Empoli had no chance of overturning a 3-0 deficit and staying up in the Italian top flight is the new goal. But we’re talking about an Empoli side that is winless over its last 18 Serie A matches! 

They did pick up a much needed point with a 2-2 draw last week in a battle of relegation-threatened sides with Venezia. And, somewhat shockingly, Fiorentina have not beaten Empoli in any of the previous six meetings (including a loss on penalties in this year’s Coppa Italia). But the hosts not taking all three points here would really surprise me. They are tied for the 4th best goal difference (+18) in the league. Meanwhile, prior to that 2-2 draw with Venezia, Empoli had not scored more than one goal in any match since prior to Christmas! I think it’s quite likely they end up relegated at the end of the season. The price on the 3-way line here simply does not reflect the gap in quality between the two sides. 3% Fiorentina (Play to -140)