Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Arizona +9.5 (-110)

3% Arizona (3:30 ET): Can you believe the lookahead line for this game (over the summer) was Arizona -17?! It’s certainly been an “upside-down” season in the Big XII. Arizona State was projected for only 4.5 wins at the start of the campaign, but now finds itself in a position where a SU win here gets them to the Conference Championship Game. Pretty remarkable. On the flip side, Arizona’s first season under Brent Brennan has been an abject disaster. The Wildcats have gone from the best ATS team in the country (11-2 last season) to the worst (2-9 this season). But this is a rivalry game, at home, and I expect they’ll be up for it. A clear case of “buy low/sell high.” 

Arizona State is off a huge 28-23 win over BYU that put themselves in the drivers seat for the Big 12 Championship Game. Fans in Tempe stormed the field afterwards (and, turns out, a little bit early as well!) But the Sun Devils were outgained in that game (440-401) and have just ONE conference win by more than 10 points all season. That was against last place Oklahoma State (winless in Big XII play). Six of the Sun Devils’ victories have been by eight points or less, putting them right near the top of my luck ratings (#2, only behind fraud Arkansas State). Then you have to consider this: ASU has not been asked to lay more than 6.5 to ANY opponent this season. They closed -5 at Oklahoma State, as a dog at Texas State, and only -6.5 (at home) in the season opener vs. a Wyoming team that has only two wins! 

As disappointing a season as it’s been for Arizona (no chance to go to a bowl), they still have QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan, a combo that always gives them a fighting chance. The Wildcats have some bad losses this year, but two of the three here in Tucson were by six points or less. They’ve closed north of +7 only one time and that was last week at TCU (+10.5). All the pressure is on Arizona State here and, while I think they still likely win the game, covering this inflated number is an entirely different story. Take the points. 3% Arizona (Play to +7.5)