Jimmy Adams

THE PLAY: Memphis +2.5 (-110)

Most of you know that the Mountain West has historically performed very poorly in the NCAA Tournament. That will once again be the case this year as Colorado State will be bumped out in their first game. The Rams got an automatic bid by winning the conference tournament, a shock to most as they hadn’t done so in a long time. When you run down the analytics for CSU they’re not bad, but if there’s an area they struggle it’s defending the 3 point line. That’s a big problem considering Memphis ranks 18th in the nation in 3 point shooting percentage. The Tigers force turnovers and want to get out and run. They also crash the offensive glass at a high rate and will control the pace while rolling to win in this one. Take Memphis. 

THE PLAY: Missouri -6.5 (-108)

Missouri is a team that’s overlooked entering the NCAA Tournament, with the potential to make a deep run. The top seeded Tigers are loaded with talent and even handed #1 seed Florida their only home loss of the season. They have one of the best 3 point shooters in the nation in Caleb Grill, and an interior presence inside led by Mark Mitchell. Mizzou ranks 5th in adjusted offensive efficiency and just went through the toughest conference schedule in the nation. Drake ran through the Missouri Valley rather easily, but their metrics are nowhere close to what they need to compete with an SEC program the caliber of the Tigers. This one won’t be close. Take Missouri.