Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION De Graafschap 0.0 (-124)

De Graafschap vs Heracles
Dutch Cup (KNVB Beker), Thursday, 12:45pm ET

Play: De Graafschap PK
Odds at Time of Release: -124
Line Parameter: Line good to -130

Round of 16 of the Dutch Cup (or KNVB Beker), with 2nd division side De Graafschap playing host to first division side Heracles, and we like the home side here. 

De Graafschap are doing a fine job in the 2nd division, currently sitting 5th and inside the promotiomn playoff spots, which is their main target this season, but they cannot easily disregard the Cup, as they can move to the quarter-finals against a Heracles team that is struggling right now and their main objective is to avoid relegation from the top division. 

De Graafschap are W9 D1 L2 at home (including two Cup wins by 4-0 and 4-1), scoring 2+ goals in 11 of 12 matches and 3+ goals in 8 of 12. Really strong at home, and they just changed their coach, so there is also the new manager bounce narrative in effect.

Heracles are sitting just above the relegation zone in the top tier with 15 points, just 2 points above the red line and have a crucial relegation battle coming up on the weekend, just 3 days after this Cup match, where they will travel to Almere City, who are sitting inside the relegation zone. There is no time or resources for Heracles to even consider the Cup at this point in time, as they cannot realistically win it, and spending resources that they dont have in a seemingly meaningless Cup match is too much for them. Plus, they are missing their top scorer in this match. 

Heracles have the 3rd worst defense in their league with 34 conceded goals in 17 matches (conceding an average of 2 goals/match), and are really bad on the road (W1 D1 L6), scoring just 5 and conceding 20 goals.

Take 2% on De Graafschap PK (-124), line good to -130

THE PLAY: REGULATION Rayo Vallecano +0.5 (+110)

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano
Copa del Rey, Thursday, 1:30pm ET

Play: Rayo Vallecano or Draw (Double Chance)
Odds at Time of Release: +110
Line Parameter: Line good to -105

Real Sociedad will be playing their 2nd of 3 matches in a span of 7 days when they will host Rayo Vallecano for the round of 16 of the Copa del Rey on Thursday. They just played on Monday (beat Villarreal by 1-0 at home) and they are traveling to Valencia just 3 days after this Cup match, so the coach has already expressed his frustration about scheduling. 

Reports from Spain suggest that he will widely rotate his squad in order to keep them fresh for the upcoming league match, as well as the Europa League match that is coming against Lazio next Thursday. That doesn't mean that they will roll over and die, or disregard the Cup competition, but it doesn't bode well for their chances, especially against a sneaky and in-form Rayo side. 

Rayo Vallecano had 3 more days to rest than Sociedad, and they beat Celta Vigo by 2-1 on Friday, increasing their unbeaten run to 7 matches in all competitions (W4 D3 L0). And it's not like they had an easy schedule, as they forced Betis to a 1-1 draw on the road, Real Madrid to a 3-3 draw at home and Villarreal to a 1-1 draw on the road, so this Rayo side is doing really well against better teams. Their main focus has always been to avoid relegation, and they are doing a fine job in the La Liga, currently sitting 9th with 25 points, a safe 9-point distance from the relegation zone. That gives them the luxury to field a competitive squad in this Cup match, although the coach did say that they cannot win the Copa del Rey. 

Rayo Vallecano actually looked Real Sociedad in the eye in this venue earlier in the season, beating them by 2-1, while forcing two draws (0-0 and 2-2) last season, and they have done a solid job in this venue over the last decade or so, losing just 3 of L/8 matches here (W3 D2 L3), while beating them in the only previous Copa del Rey match in this venue, albeit back in 2009 (2-0). 

All things considered, that -150 on Real Sociedad ML feels terrible, with the Draw at +250 and Rayo ML at +430, with the Asian Spread Set at 0.75. There is absolute value in taking Rayo Vallecano or Draw (Double Chance) at +110, or even Rayo Vallecano to Qualify at +250. 

We already have a lot of action in other matches on Thursday, so this is just a Free Play for the time being. We will wait for lineups to come out about an hour prior to game time (12:30pm ET) before we make a decision on whether to add this as an official client play. Till then, treat this play as a lean. 

Take Rayo Vallecano or Draw Double Chance (this is the same bet as Rayo +0.5) at +110, or consider taking Rayo Vallecano to Qualify at +250. Good luck!

THE PLAY: REGULATION Own Goal Scored (+900)

Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo 
Copa del Rey, Thursday, 3:30pm ET

Play: Own Goal Scored
Odds at Time of Release: +900
Line Parameter: Line good to +700

I went 2+ seasons back in stats and Celta have some truly weird stats when it comes to Own Goals, Red Cards and Penalty Kicks, with a considerable amount of their matches having at least one of said events, and a good amount of those producing at least two of three. It probably has to do with the coach, who had some interesting results when coaching Celta's Reserves, with a lot of matches producing either Red Cards, Own Goals or Penalty Kicks. 

Truth is I didn't keep tab of those stats but they were really eye-catching. Which brings me to Real Madrid's matches after a loss (especially if that loss is against Barcelona, which really fires them up in their next game). Real Madrid get a lot of penalty kicks, along with Own Goals and Red Cards (as they are pressed for a result and they tend to dominate opponents and have big percentages of ball possession, which produces a lot of dangerous situations inside the penalty area). 

We are looking for a similar tactic to the one we (successfully) deployed twice this week (in the Gladbach/Bayern game and in the Arsenal/Tottenham game). These are not widely available, but FanDuel and B365 (among others) usually offer these markets, so here is what we are going to do:

Take 1% on Penalty Kick Awarded (+162), line good to +150
Take 0.5% on the Red Card Awarded (+410), line good to +400
Take 0.5 on the Own Goal Scored (+900), line good to +700

We are risking 2u on three props in this match, that way we need just 1 of them to hit in order to make some profit. 

If there's just a Penalty Kick in the match (no Own Goal, no Red Card) we make +0.62u.
If there's just a Red Card (no Own Goal, no Penalty Kick), we make +0.5u.
If there's just an Own Goal (no Red Card, no Penalty Kick), we make +3u. 
If none of those 3 events happen, we just lose 2u which is acceptable (and we can still make those back plus some profit from our main bet of the day). 
If two or more of these events happen, we turn a nice profit. 

But given the stats for both Real Madrid and Celta Vigo, there is a very good chance that we see at least two of those events.

Good luck!

Take 0.5% on Own Goal Scored (+900), line good to +700

THE PLAY: REGULATION Red Card Awarded (+410)

Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo 
Copa del Rey, Thursday, 3:30pm ET

Play: Red Card Awarded 
Odds at Time of Release: +410
Line Parameter: Line good to +400

I went 2+ seasons back in stats and Celta have some truly weird stats when it comes to Own Goals, Red Cards and Penalty Kicks, with a considerable amount of their matches having at least one of said events, and a good amount of those producing at least two of three. It probably has to do with the coach, who had some interesting results when coaching Celta's Reserves, with a lot of matches producing either Red Cards, Own Goals or Penalty Kicks. 

Truth is I didn't keep tab of those stats but they were really eye-catching. Which brings me to Real Madrid's matches after a loss (especially if that loss is against Barcelona, which really fires them up in their next game). Real Madrid get a lot of penalty kicks, along with Own Goals and Red Cards (as they are pressed for a result and they tend to dominate opponents and have big percentages of ball possession, which produces a lot of dangerous situations inside the penalty area). 

We are looking for a similar tactic to the one we (successfully) deployed twice this week (in the Gladbach/Bayern game and in the Arsenal/Tottenham game). These are not widely available, but FanDuel and B365 (among others) usually offer these markets, so here is what we are going to do:

Take 1% on Penalty Kick Awarded (+162), line good to +150
Take 0.5% on the Red Card Awarded (+410), line good to +400
Take 0.5 on the Own Goal Scored (+900), line good to +700

We are risking 2u on three props in this match, that way we need just 1 of them to hit in order to make some profit. 

If there's just a Penalty Kick in the match (no Own Goal, no Red Card) we make +0.62u.
If there's just a Red Card (no Own Goal, no Penalty Kick), we make +0.5u.
If there's just an Own Goal (no Red Card, no Penalty Kick), we make +3u. 
If none of those 3 events happen, we just lose 2u which is acceptable (and we can still make those back plus some profit from our main bet of the day). 
If two or more of these events happen, we turn a nice profit. 

But given the stats for both Real Madrid and Celta Vigo, there is a very good chance that we see at least two of those events.

Good luck!

Take 0.5% on Red Card Awarded (+410), line good to +400

THE PLAY: REGULATION Penalty Kick Awarded (+162)

Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo 
Copa del Rey, Thursday, 3:30pm ET

Play: Penalty Kick Awarded 
Odds at Time of Release: +162
Line Parameter: Line good to +150

I went 2+ seasons back in stats and Celta have some truly weird stats when it comes to Own Goals, Red Cards and Penalty Kicks, with a considerable amount of their matches having at least one of said events, and a good amount of those producing at least two of three. It probably has to do with the coach, who had some interesting results when coaching Celta's Reserves, with a lot of matches producing either Red Cards, Own Goals or Penalty Kicks. 

Truth is I didn't keep tab of those stats but they were really eye-catching. Which brings me to Real Madrid's matches after a loss (especially if that loss is against Barcelona, which really fires them up in their next game). Real Madrid get a lot of penalty kicks, along with Own Goals and Red Cards (as they are pressed for a result and they tend to dominate opponents and have big percentages of ball possession, which produces a lot of dangerous situations inside the penalty area). 

We are looking for a similar tactic to the one we (successfully) deployed twice this week (in the Gladbach/Bayern game and in the Arsenal/Tottenham game). These are not widely available, but FanDuel and B365 (among others) usually offer these markets, so here is what we are going to do:

Take 1% on Penalty Kick Awarded (+162), line good to +150
Take 0.5% on the Red Card Awarded (+410), line good to +400
Take 0.5 on the Own Goal Scored (+900), line good to +700

We are risking 2u on three props in this match, that way we need just 1 of them to hit in order to make some profit. 

If there's just a Penalty Kick in the match (no Own Goal, no Red Card) we make +0.62u.
If there's just a Red Card (no Own Goal, no Penalty Kick), we make +0.5u.
If there's just an Own Goal (no Red Card, no Penalty Kick), we make +3u. 
If none of those 3 events happen, we just lose 2u which is acceptable (and we can still make those back plus some profit from our main bet of the day). 
If two or more of these events happen, we turn a nice profit. 

But given the stats for both Real Madrid and Celta Vigo, there is a very good chance that we see at least two of those events.

Good luck!

Take 1% on Penalty Kick Awarded (+162), line good to +150