Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (-115)

The Cardinals match up well against the Vikings and have key advantages in critical areas. Minnesota has struggled to win convincingly without Christian Darrisaw, with all four of their recent wins coming against teams with losing records. Their offense has been inconsistent, and Arizona’s solid pressure rate could cause problems for Sam Darnold, especially with the Vikings’ limited success on the ground. Arizona’s defense has the tools to slow down Minnesota’s rushing attack and apply enough pressure to make this game competitive.

Kyler Murray gives the Cardinals a strong edge because he excels against the blitz, which is a major part of Minnesota’s defensive game plan. Murray’s ability to make big throws under pressure and avoid turnovers will keep the Cardinals in the game. Additionally, Arizona’s passing game has favorable matchups, particularly with Trey McBride and Greg Dortch, as the Vikings have struggled to defend tight ends and slot receivers.

Finally, the Cardinals are getting an extra half-point at +3.5, which is crucial in a game that should be close. The Vikings could be fatigued after their overtime win, and Arizona’s ability to compete against tougher competition gives them a real chance to cover the spread or even pull off the upset. This makes the Cardinals +3.5 a smart, value-driven play.

THE PLAY: New York Knicks -4.0 (-110)

The Knicks have been in excellent form, winning five of their last six games and showing they can dominate on the road. Their offense is on fire, ranking 2nd in offensive rating, and they just dropped 145 points against the Nuggets in Denver. Karl-Anthony Towns has been a game-changer, creating mismatches on the perimeter and freeing up Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby to attack defenses. Against a Mavericks team missing Luka Doncic and struggling to defend the paint, the Knicks’ balanced attack has a clear edge.

On the other side, the Mavericks are overly reliant on Kyrie Irving, who has been inconsistent without Doncic. The Knicks have several strong perimeter defenders to throw at Irving, which could make it tough for him to carry the offense. Unless Dallas has a lights-out shooting night from deep, it’s hard to see them keeping pace with a Knicks team that has multiple scoring threats and the ability to exploit defensive mismatches.

With their current form, depth, and defensive edge, the Knicks are well-positioned to win and cover the -4 spread.

THE PLAY: Denver Nuggets -10.5 (-110)

I was able to give this out to clients at -7.5 last night. This is a benefit of being a long term client, being able to get the best of the number.

Denver has a clear edge in talent, form, and rest. Nikola Jokic is playing at an MVP level, averaging nearly 30 points and 13 rebounds per game, and the Nuggets have dominated this matchup, winning 6 of the last 8 meetings, with most being blowouts. Meanwhile, the Jazz are on the second game of a back-to-back after a lackluster defensive performance against the Spurs. Without Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson, Utah's offense is heavily weakened, leaving them without reliable scoring options.

Denver’s offense is one of the best in the league, ranking 2nd in free throw attempts per game and shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc. Utah, on the other hand, has major defensive issues, allowing 118.5 points per game and ranking near the bottom of the league in turnover percentage and opponent steals per game. The Jazz’s struggles, especially in protecting the ball, will likely allow the Nuggets to control the game and build a comfortable lead.

The combination of Denver’s firepower, Utah’s fatigue, and key injuries makes this a tough spot for the Jazz. The Nuggets already beat the Jazz by 26 points earlier this month, and with the rest advantage and momentum on their side, Denver should easily cover the -7.5 spread in this matchup.

The number has shifted to -10.5 at this point, I do think the Nuggets still cover this number but I would adjust the unit size down a bit.