Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Miami Heat Total Under 109.5 (-105)

The best value in Friday night’s win-or-go-home play-in clash between the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks may come from fading the Heat’s team total. Miami enters this matchup off a 109-point effort against Chicago, a game in which Tyler Herro exploded for 38 points on 68% shooting. However, that type of offensive efficiency is unlikely to repeat, especially against an Atlanta team that matches up better defensively than the Bulls and will be desperate to bounce back after getting torched by Orlando. Miami has been inconsistent on offense down the stretch, their win streak post all star break becomes less impressive when you see the teams they faced and the situations they were in.

With the Hawks at home, playing with a rest advantage, and the Heat lacking consistent production outside of Herro, the value lies in taking Miami Heat team total under 109.5.

THE PLAY: 1H Seattle Mariners -115 B Woo (RHP), B Francis (RHP) Must Start

The Seattle Mariners are poised to strike early in Friday’s matchup, making their F5 moneyline at -115 a sharp value play. Bryan Woo gets the nod for Seattle, and he's been highly effective this season giving up just six earned runs in 19 innings pitched. His elite command and sub-3.00 xERA give Seattle a distinct edge in the early innings, especially against a Blue Jays offense that is .256 but with a 0.117 ISO and ranks near the bottom in barrel rate (6.4%).

On the other side, Toronto’s Bowden Francis has shown major red flags in the opening frames. Over his first three starts of the season, he’s given up nine earned runs in 17 innings pitched with a bloated 2.12 HR/9 rate and 5.98 xERA. Combine that with a Seattle offense that has both speed and power and Francis can be in a lot of trouble early on.

Given Seattle’s starting pitching advantage, stronger offensive metrics, and the fact that Woo has gone 6+ innings in all three of his starts this season, Mariners F5 ML at -115 is the best way to attack this game.