The Gold Sheet

THE PLAY: Total Over 136.5 (-110)

Early money has shown on the over in this Missouri Valley matchup, and we agree with it. Southern Illinois is starting to find its offensive stride under first-year head coach Scott Nagy. After an 0-5 start to conference play, the Salukis have won three-straight games and have scored an average of 80 points per game in their last four contests. Nagy arrived in Carbondale after coaching at Wright State for the last eight seasons. Under Nagy, the Raiders finished top-25 in tempo each of the last two seasons. Under former head coach Bryan Mullins, Southern Illinois was No. 333 in tempo last season. Needless to say, it's taken the Salukis a little bit of time to adjust to this new system. Murray State head coach Steve Prohm wouldn't mind picking up the pace, too. The Racers have not done much racing over the last two seasons because this iteration of Murray State is playing at the slowest tempo of any Steve Prohm-coached team. When he was at Iowa State, Coach Prohm's Cyclones were routinely top-100 in pace. Over the last two seasons, Murray State has gone 22-29 so this adjustment to a slower playing style has not worked. The over is 7-4 in Murray State's last 11 games. Playing with a bit more confidence on offense, look for Southern Illinois to push the pace and help get this final score over the total.

THE PLAY: Philadelphia Eagles Total Over 26.5 (-125)

Unlike last week, early forecasts are calling for clear conditions in Philadelphia on Sunday (be sure to keep checking through out the week). Four of the last five meetings between these NFC East foes have gone over the total. We mentioned this last week, and it's worth repeating here again this week: The victor usually gets to write history, and you rarely put as much stock into how you got there. Well, let us remind you what this Washington defense has been up to over the last two weeks. Tampa Bay's Mike Evans had seven catches on seven targets for 92 yards, one touchdown and drew penalties against Marshon Lattimore. Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown had eight catches for 137 yards last week. The Lions posted a 57.6-percent success rate on offense against Washington's defense last week. For comparison's sake, the Chiefs posted a 38.8-percent success rate against the Texans. Detroit generated 7.7 yards per play, and the Lions only faced a third down nine times in the entire game. Since the Eagles and Commanders met in Week 16, Washington's defense is No. 26 in EPA allowed per play, No. 26 in success rate allowed, No. 24 in EPA allowed per drop-back, No. 23 in passing success rate allowed, No. 28 in EPA allowed per rush attempt and No. 23 in rushing success rate allowed. Keep an eye on the weather and Jalen Hurts' status through out the week, but if both of those are getting positive reports, the Eagles should light up the scoreboard. In their last eight meetings, the Eagles have scored an average of 27.9 points per game in this matchup.