Drew Martin

THE PLAY: Total Under 42.0 (-115)

Attacking the afternoon slate of the week 1 NFL card with an under wager in the Broncos vs Seahawks matchup. First, we need to go over the peripheral NFL total market betting numbers over the last two years. NFL week 1 games have gone an astonishing 9-23 (72%) to the under in week 1 games over the past two seasons. We are using these strong under tendencies to our advantage and adding some unique metrics in this particular matchup to our advantage. 

Denver is starting rookie QB Bo Nix. As an Auburn alumni and a handicapper that concentrates heavily on the former PAC 12 conference, I have seen a ton of Bo Nix over the last half decade. An outstanding athlete, that can make huge plays with his feet. However, the young QB can struggled throwing the ball down the field. I believe that will hinder the Broncos offense hitting big plays on the road in a tough environment. 

Seattle comes in a perfect (0-3) to the under in game #1 the past three seasons. Denver a perfect (0-5) the past 5 seasons to the under in game #1 of the season. This is one of the loudest atmospheres in the NFL and the kickoff to the NFL season in the pacific northwest. The matchup likely plays as a defensive battle with the total falling short of reaching the 40's. Bet under. 

This is a 2% NFL client pick. Also, giving it out as a free pick for week 1 in the NFL. 

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Some Saturday looks… 
 

THE PLAY: Florida Gators Season Wins Over 5 (+105)

Going against the grain to start off the 2024 college football season, taking a stab with the team the masses are starting to write their obituary. Florida comes into the 2024 season with their head coach as the favorite to be the first coach fired. Sure, the start to Billy Napiers tenure in Gainsville has not been what the UF faithful had hoped for. Although, there is a bunch to be optimistic towards this season. 

Florida cashed in on a top 10 nationally ranked transfer portal class. The Gators were one of the youngest teams across college football last season, leading the country with seven true freshmen who played in every game. Their 37 starts by freshmen ranked fifth among power conference programs. The Gators have 204 more career starts and 10,000-plus more career snaps than a year ago. Considering Napier’s emphasis on development, massive positive progression. 

The Gators return virtually their entire coaching staff. Head coach Billy Napier enters year 3 in Gainsville, which is a “Bet on” look installing his systems and culture into the program. This man can coach too, former assistant under Nick Saban and 2 time SunBelt Conference coach of the year. He returns his starting QB Gram Mertz. Mertz shattered UF’s single-season completion percentage record (72.9%) and posted a 20:3 touchdown-interception ratio. In his second season in the same system, setting up for continued success. 

The schedule is no joke and leads into the main issue- The Gators will likely be an improved team, although will that translate to wins. I think so, remember last year this was a squad that beat Tennessee by two touchdowns, had Missouri on the ropes, winning in the 4th quarter vs FSU, competitive throughout against LSU. Can this bet blow up in our face and the Gators season unravels and Napier is sent packing? Yes, it is called gambling for a reason. I believe there is a far greater chance that Florida surprises this year and plays disciplined football behind a very talented roster. Seven home games with winnable trips to Starkville and Tallahassee. This might be the most talented (6-6) team to walk on a college football field, if they punch a bowl ticket we cash this season win total over at plus money. Bet Florida season win over 5 (+105). 

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