Andrew McInnis

THE PLAY: Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards O/U Over 52.5 (-120)

Diontae Johnson might be a new face in the locker room in Carolina, but I expect him to be a vital part of their offense and that starts in week 1. The Panthers are expecting improvement from Bryce Young at QB, and the work to improve their offensive line should help him out – The Saints have a respectable defense, but they actually ranked #23 in yards per completion last season and with the style that Diontae Johnson plays, he's usually good for at least one deep ball reception. This number of 52.5 is more based on previous performances and not the situation that Johnson finds himself in with his new team. He's the clear WR1 and he'll be targeted more than enough times to get us this win. 

Look for a point off emphasis to be getting Diontae Johnson involved early on in this ball game. 

THE PLAY: Carolina Panthers +4.0 (-110)

Carolina Panthers +4.0 (-110)…(3%) Good to +3.5

In a matchup featuring two teams with lower expectations for the season, I believe there's a strong case to support the underdog. The Panthers have made significant improvements to their offensive line during the offseason, and I anticipate a breakout season for Bryce Young at the quarterback position. Despite their 1-5 record in divisional match-ups last season straight up, the Panthers covered the spread in half of those meetings, signalling their potential for improvement. In contrast, the Saints appear to be heading in the wrong direction. 

Statistically, divisional underdogs in the early weeks of September have historically been a profitable bet, boasting a 58.6% ATS record since 2005-06. Notably, September divisional underdogs at +5 or shorter are 60.2% ATS when the total closes under 43.5 points. When the total is under 42.5 points, their ATS record jumps to 61.2%. 

Moreover, considering Derek Carr's lackluster performance as a favorite, with a 21-37-2 ATS record when closing as the favored team, including a 4-8-1 ATS record last season, the Panthers appear to be in a favorable position. 

With the addition of receiver Diontae Johnson and the maturation of several key players, the Panthers are poised to keep this game competitive and potentially secure a victory. 

Based on these insights, I strongly recommend considering a play on the Panthers at +4.